摘要：With the enlargement and intensification of oil storages, once fire and explosion accidents have occurred, the domino effect may be triggered and cause catastrophic destruction. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a reasonable quantitative analysis method. It indicates that the domino effect has the characteristics of low-probability and uncertainty. Quantitative analysis methods of domino effect mainly include analytical method, Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian network, etc. It had been applied to different extent. At present, there is no research on the applicability of the above methods for the domino effect triggered by pool fire in tank farm. Based on the actual case studies, the theoretical basis, calculation process and characteristics of these methods were compared. The results show that the Bayesian network has advantages including more comprehensive accident propagation mode, more realistic accident sequence, more accurate results, and more convenient operation. The probability of domino effect is 5.859×10^-6 without safety barriers, and the probability of domino effect is 5.414×10^-7 with fireproofing coatings, whose order of magnitude is less than the former. After setting the water deluge device, the probability is reduced to 3.654×10^-7, indicating that considering multi-layered safety barriers can significantly reduce the probability of domino effect.
© 2020, Editorial Office of Journal of China University of Petroleum(Edition of Natural Science). All right reserved.

ISSN号：1673-5005

卷、期、页：v 44,n 5,p122-130

发表日期：2020-10-20

期刊分区（SCI为中科院分区）：无

收录情况：EI（工程索引）

发表期刊名称：Zhongguo Shiyou Daxue Xuebao (Ziran Kexue Ban)/Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Natural Science)

通讯作者：吴守志,刘芳媛,伍星光

第一作者：侯磊

论文类型：期刊论文

论文概要：侯磊,吴守志,刘芳媛,伍星光，Quantitative analysis methods and optimization of domino effect triggerred by pool fire in tank farms，Zhongguo Shiyou Daxue Xuebao (Ziran Kexue Ban)/Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Natural Science)，2020，v 44,n 5,p122-130

论文题目：Quantitative analysis methods and optimization of domino effect triggerred by pool fire in tank farms