摘要：Comprehensively considering operation parameters, fluid physical parameters and the uncertainty of environment parameters, this work investigates hydrate formation probability in deep-sea wet-gas pipeline and proposes an efficient and accurate calculation method to predict hydrate formation probability in deep-sea wet-gas pipeline based on limit state equation, reliability theory, LHS (Latin Hypercube Sampling Method) - Monte Carlo sampling algorithm and Proper Orthogonal Decomposing method(POD). The stochastic numerical simulation method for different distribution functions is proposed on the basis of LHS - Monte Carlo algorithm. The sampling simulation of different random parameters at inlet of the pipeline under different distribution functions is performed by giving the suitable distribution function and parameter, and the influence of uncertainty factors on the calculation of hydrate formation probability is analyzed. Based on the POD algorithm, the use of simple interpolation calculation helps reconstruct the physical field. The reconstruction improves the problems of Monte Carlo algorithm, like large amount of computation and time consuming. Therefore, it increases the computational efficiency of the numerical simulation.
© 2018 International Association for Probablistic Safety Assessment and Management (IAPSAM). All rights reserved.

发表日期：2018-01-01

期刊分区（SCI为中科院分区）：无

收录情况：EI（工程索引）

发表期刊名称：PSAM 2018 - Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management

参与作者：阮超宇,侯志强,陆鑫

第一作者：史博会

论文类型：会议论文

论文概要：阮超宇,侯志强,陆鑫,史博会，Reliability-based approach to the assessment of hydrate formation probability in deep-sea wet-gas pipelines，PSAM 2018 - Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management，2018，

论文题目：Reliability-based approach to the assessment of hydrate formation probability in deep-sea wet-gas pipelines