摘要：Hydrate blockage significantly challenges flow assurance during subsea oil and gas operations. This paper presented a novel probabilistic method to quantitatively evaluate hydrate blockage risk based on reliability theory. The limit state equation of hydrate blockage involving hydrate volume fraction was established, after which Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used to determine the uncertain parameter samples. Moreover, the calculation efficiency was enhanced using the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) method, involving physical field reconstruction based on OLGA-CSMHyK simulation. Furthermore, this paper considered the uncertainty of pipeline operating parameters, such as the pipeline inlet temperature (T), outlet pressure (P), mass flow rate production reduction (Q), heat transfer coefficient (K), and initial droplet diameter (Dp). This method was used to predict the probability of hydrate blockage at any time and at any position of the multiphase pipeline. Three risk levels were defined, including hydrate formation risk, low risk of hydrate blockage, and high risk of hydrate blockage. The calculation results indicated that Q displayed a significant impact compared with the other four uncertain parameters, while the influence of topography also warranted attention. This work may provide a reference for optimizing hydrate management strategies and ensuring safe pipeline operation. ? 2021 Elsevier B.V.

ISSN号：1875-5100

卷、期、页：卷98

发表日期：2022-02-01

影响因子：4.965000

期刊分区（SCI为中科院分区）：二区

收录情况：SCIE（科学引文索引网络版）,地学领域高质量科技期刊分级目录（国外T1）,EI（工程索引）

发表期刊名称：Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering

参与作者：阮超宇,陈玉川,王君傲,姚海元

通讯作者：贾军鹏,贾军鹏,陈思杭,陈思杭

第一作者：史博会,宋尚飞,宫敬

论文类型：期刊论文

论文概要：贾军鹏,史博会,阮超宇,贾军鹏,宋尚飞,陈思杭,陈玉川,陈思杭,王君傲,姚海元,宫敬，Quantitative assessment of hydrate blockage risk in pipelines based on reliability theory，Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering，2022，卷98

论文题目：Quantitative assessment of hydrate blockage risk in pipelines based on reliability theory