摘要：The natural gas pipeline system (NGPS) is a complex network of units that is susceptible to potential random failures. Moreover, the environment in which the NGPS operates is characterized by complexity and uncertainty, including market volatility, natural disasters, and deliberate sabotage. While research on the NGPS has mainly focused on supply reliability through methods such as statistical analysis and random simulation, there is a lack of emphasis on the system's supply resilience, which encompasses its robustness and recovery abilities. To address the resilience of the NGPS under uncertainty, this study proposes a probabilistic analysis model that evaluates supply resilience based on failure mechanisms and reasonable data. The model takes into account the integrated evaluation indexes framework and analyzes the process of failure and recovery, using MCMC random process analysis and complex networks theory. The results indicate that both gas transportation capacity and user satisfaction should be considered in the evaluation and strategy analysis of NGPS resilience. Furthermore, the study of resilience can provide guidance for NGPS operation, pre-warning during the design and operational stages. ? 2023 The Institution of Chemical Engineers

ISSN号：0957-5820

卷、期、页：卷177：891-908

发表日期：2023-09-01

影响因子：0.000000

期刊分区（SCI为中科院分区）：二区

收录情况：SCI（科学引文索引印刷版）,EI（工程索引）,SCIE（科学引文索引网络版）

发表期刊名称：Process Safety and Environmental Protection

参与作者：迈克尔,恩里克

通讯作者：杨兆铭,李学艺,向旗,何倩

第一作者：苏怀,张劲军

论文类型：期刊论文

论文概要：杨兆铭,李学艺,向旗,何倩,迈克尔,恩里克,苏怀,张劲军，A resilience evaluation method of natural gas pipeline system based on uncertainty analysis，Process Safety and Environmental Protection，2023，卷177：891-908

论文题目：A resilience evaluation method of natural gas pipeline system based on uncertainty analysis