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Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method

摘要:

The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd

ISSN号:0950-4230

卷、期、页:v 71,

发表日期:2021-07-01

影响因子:2.795000

期刊分区(SCI为中科院分区):三区

收录情况:SCIE(科学引文索引网络版),EI(工程索引)

发表期刊名称:Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries

参与作者:刘书杰,王明春

通讯作者:陈志煌,陈幸

第一作者:王莹莹,杨进

论文类型:期刊论文

论文概要:王莹莹,刘书杰,陈志煌,王明春,杨进,陈幸,Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method,Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2021,v 71,

论文题目:Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method

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