摘要：An integrated methodology to assess the gas supply reliability of a gas pipeline network considering stochastic demands is proposed in this study. Typical scenarios are selected based on the structural reliability calculated by probability theory and stochastic process, including the normal scenario and some failure scenarios with a high probability. For each specific scenario, the gas supply condition is assessed based on the Latin hypercube sampling with the Cholesky decomposition method under stochastic demands. The maximum flow method based on the Dijkstra algorithm is adopted to determine whether the gas demand of customers can be fully covered and optimize the supply scheme under shortages. Finally, the assessment results are demonstrated from the following four aspects: the probability distribution of gas shortages under the normal scenario, identification of units with a high failure probability and vulnerable units, the reasons of gas supply shortages and corresponding probabilities, and the probability distribution of supply reliability for a gas pipeline network and each customer. The methodology is applied to a large-scale gas pipeline network in China. The results of the supply reliability assessment are analyzed in detail, and the sensitivity analysis of the gas demand uncertainty level on gas supply reliability is conducted.
© 2021

ISSN号：0951-8320

卷、期、页：v 209,

发表日期：2021-05-01

影响因子：5.039600

期刊分区（SCI为中科院分区）：二区

收录情况：EI（工程索引）

发表期刊名称：Reliability Engineering and System Safety

参与作者：Cao, Yankai,Sadiq, Rehan

通讯作者：陈潜,步亚冉,陈峰

第一作者：左丽丽,吴长春

论文类型：期刊论文

论文概要：陈潜,左丽丽,吴长春,Cao, Yankai,步亚冉,陈峰,Sadiq, Rehan，Supply reliability assessment of a gas pipeline network under stochastic demands，Reliability Engineering and System Safety，2021，v 209,

论文题目：Supply reliability assessment of a gas pipeline network under stochastic demands