摘要：The failure rate of equipment during long-term operation in severe environment is time-varying. Most studies regard the failure rate as a constant, ignoring the reliability evaluation error caused by the constant. While studying failure data that are few and easily missing, it is common to focus only on the uncertainty of reliability index rather than parameter of failure rate. In this study, a new time-varying failure rate model containing time-varying scale factor is established, and a statistical-fuzzy model of failure rate cumulated parameter is established by using statistical and fuzzy knowledge, which is used to modify the time-varying failure rate model. Subsequently, the theorem of the upper boundary existence for the failure rate region is proposed and proved to provide the failure rate cumulated parameter when the failure rate changes the fastest. The proposed model and theorem are applied to analyze the reliability of subsea emergency shutdown system in the marine environment for a long time. The comparison of system reliability under time-varying failure rate and constant failure rate shows that the time-varying failure rate model can eliminate the evaluation error and is consistent with engineering. The reliability intervals based on the failure rate model before and after modification are compared to analyze differences in uncertainty, which confirm that the modified model is more accurate and more practical for engineering.

关键字：failure rate; time-varying; reliability evaluation; parameter uncertainty; model modification; subsea emergency shutdown system

ISSN号：2227-9717

卷、期、页：卷: 9期: 12

发表日期：2021-12-01

影响因子：2.753000

期刊分区（SCI为中科院分区）：三区

收录情况：SCI（科学引文索引印刷版）,SCIE（科学引文索引网络版）

发表期刊名称：PROCESSES

参与作者：尹丰,朱春丽

通讯作者：余曦冉

第一作者：左信,岳元龙

论文类型：期刊论文

论文概要：左信,余曦冉,岳元龙,尹丰,朱春丽，Reliability Study of Parameter Uncertainty Based on Time-Varying Failure Rates with an Application to Subsea Oil and Gas Production Emergency Shutdown Systems，PROCESSES，2021，卷: 9期: 12

论文题目：Reliability Study of Parameter Uncertainty Based on Time-Varying Failure Rates with an Application to Subsea Oil and Gas Production Emergency Shutdown Systems